Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Rubicksignature
ntakii · 6 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
Flash · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
ntakii · 2 games
Bloodseeker
BliNcc · 2 games
Earth Spirit
dEsire · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
BliNcc · 2 games
Level UP
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Snapfireoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Venomanceroften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
120 picks · 272 bans
Mars
118 picks · 230 bans
Earth Spirit
107 picks · 85 bans
Void Spirit
99 picks · 155 bans
Phoenix
94 picks · 99 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Nyx Assassin
76 picks · 272 bans
Keeper of the Light
74 picks · 141 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 25%
Hero pool strength64% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:15
No Bounty Hunter 67%Level UP 33%
The model gave 67% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 33:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackkAAN
PhoenixBor@nija
Ember Spiritntakii
BloodseekerBliNcc
Keeper of the LightFlash
Game 2prediction correct27:10
No Bounty Hunter 70%Level UP 30%
The model gave 70% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 19:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetBliNcc
Outworld DestroyerBor@nija
Night StalkerkAAN
Batriderntakii
Death ProphetFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 79%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2