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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
No Limits Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TRocketwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Limits Gaming

Tusk
Tusk
Zxca · 10 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
JP · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
drakesh1t · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zxca · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
drakesh1t · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Zxca · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
drakesh1t · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Alone · 4 games
50%

TRocket

Snapfire
Snapfire
Pamplona · 5 games
40%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 5 games
20%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
CarJua · 3 games
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Pamplona · 3 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
67%
Luna
Luna
CarJua · 3 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
723 picks · 609 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
559 picks · 487 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
435 picks · 1046 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
420 picks · 686 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 991 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 370 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
381 picks · 606 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% No Limits Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% No Limits Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:20
No Limits Gaming 50%TRocket 50%
The model gave 50% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerArms
55% · 46 games58% · 35 games
Chaos KnightCarJua
Chaos Knight
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLuis
52% · 144 games40% · 88 games
Ember SpiritJeimari
Ember Spirit
43% · 67 games
PhoenixPamplona
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed14:44
No Limits Gaming 53%TRocket 47%
The model gave 53% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by TRocket in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeArms
44% · 142 games53% · 77 games
AlchemistCarJua
Alchemist
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenLuis
53% · 187 games51% · 159 games
Ember SpiritJeimari
Ember Spirit
50% · 93 games
UndyingPamplona
Undying
Game 3prediction missed10:30
No Limits Gaming 54%TRocket 46%
The model gave 54% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by TRocket in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinArms
61% · 67 games54% · 38 games
LifestealerCarJua
Lifestealer
Undying
UndyingLuis
47% · 104 games42% · 72 games
Storm SpiritJeimari
Storm Spirit
43% · 61 game
Skywrath MagePamplona
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Limits Gaming · 54%
Series resultTRocket 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3