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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
No Runeswin 2:0
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lavaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Runes

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Nuages · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Nuages · 3 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Jupiter · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
100%

Lava

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
0%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
payk · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
payk · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
589 picks · 386 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
527 picks · 517 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 428 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
409 picks · 477 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
373 picks · 364 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
344 picks · 183 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 199 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
307 picks · 748 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:24
No Runes 25%Lava 75%
The model gave 75% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 33:02.
Game 2prediction correct12:1
No Runes 25%Lava 75%
The model gave 75% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 30:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 75%
Series resultNo Runes 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2