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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorrywin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Visionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Sorry

Bane
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 35 games
66%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 25 games
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 23 games
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Worick · 23 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 19 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
LastHero- · 18 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
y0nd · 18 games
61%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Kami · 18 games
67%

No Vision

Tiny
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 3 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 1 game
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 1 game
0%
Rubick
Rubick
jAMES · 1 game
100%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
jAMES · 1 game
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
jAMES · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
393 picks · 598 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
367 picks · 263 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
324 picks · 546 bans
54%
Enigma
Enigma
248 picks · 771 bans
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
233 picks · 357 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
233 picks · 336 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
220 picks · 416 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
207 picks · 735 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:15
No Sorry 62%No Vision 38%
The model gave 62% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 29:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomlayme
52% · 64 games49% · 292 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
65% · 88 games38% · 186 games
HoodwinkjAMES
Hoodwink
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
51% · 179 games
Undying
UndyingBLACKARXANGEL
60% · 72 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageArrOw
56% · 75 games
Game 2prediction correct36:51
No Sorry 59%No Vision 41%
The model gave 59% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 1:02:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kinglayme
44% · 110 games50% · 187 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Leshrac
LeshracWorick
51% · 82 games60% · 155 games
MiranajAMES
Mirana
Doom
DoomCloud
41% · 66 games
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerArrOw
44% · 54 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenBLACKARXANGEL
45% · 30 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 70%
Series resultNo Sorry 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2