ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
NoLimitloss 0:1series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Alliancewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoLimit
No games played over 6 months.
Alliance
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 22 games
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 20 games
Rubicksignature
dEsire · 20 games
Warlockoften banned
Kidaro · 20 games
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
Visageoften banned
Palantimos · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 526 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 363 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 448 bans
Luna
311 picks · 362 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 568 bans
Dark Willow
272 picks · 144 bans
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 345 bans
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 945 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
NoLimit 18%Alliance 82%
The model gave 82% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 82%
Series resultAlliance 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1