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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
noMERCYwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qhaliloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

noMERCY

Treant Protector
Treant Protector
555k · 12 games
42%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Jeimari · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
drakeel · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Zxca · 9 games
44%
Visage
Visagesignature
drakeel · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
555k · 6 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
555k · 6 games
17%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Jeimari · 6 games
67%

Qhali

Snapfire
Snapfire
MonHty · 15 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 14 games
36%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 13 games
31%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Robo-Z · 10 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Luis · 10 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MonHty · 9 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 7 games
57%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Cucahook · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
702 picks · 492 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
565 picks · 1093 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
564 picks · 503 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
560 picks · 609 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1216 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1041 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
460 picks · 917 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
458 picks · 672 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 23%
Hero pool strength50% Qhali
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% noMERCY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:9
noMERCY 52%Qhali 48%
The model gave 52% on noMERCY — the game was taken by noMERCY in 26:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMnz
45% · 126 games64% · 129 games
MedusaCucahook
Medusa
Kunkka
KunkkaMr.Jeans
38% · 52 games52% · 65 games
Tidehunterdrakesh1t
Tidehunter
Timbersaw
TimbersawBenjaz
51% · 127 games45% · 137 games
WindrangerRobo-Z
Windranger
Techies
TechiesElmisho
56% · 181 game47% · 49 games
ClinkzMonHty
Clinkz
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerYadomi
45% · 106 games51% · 212 games
Undying555k
Undying
Game 2prediction correct39:14
noMERCY 58%Qhali 42%
The model gave 58% on noMERCY — the game was taken by noMERCY in 37:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMnz
66% · 134 games41% · 154 games
TerrorbladeCucahook
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMr.Jeans
51% · 131 game47% · 63 games
KunkkaRobo-Z
Kunkka
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBenjaz
55% · 109 games47% · 254 games
Pangolierdrakesh1t
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonYadomi
55% · 108 games43% · 129 games
Spirit Breaker555k
Spirit Breaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkElmisho
53% · 346 games43% · 228 games
SnapfireMonHty
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoritenoMERCY · 58%
Series resultnoMERCY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2