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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
noMERCYloss 1:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Universitario Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

noMERCY

Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
555k · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Zxca · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Jeimari · 7 games
43%
Visage
Visagesignature
drakeel · 7 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
drakeel · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
555k · 5 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Zxca · 5 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jeimari · 5 games
80%

Universitario Esports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
728 picks · 624 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
601 picks · 529 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
517 picks · 1003 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
516 picks · 1276 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
450 picks · 1143 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
445 picks · 919 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
425 picks · 224 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
421 picks · 608 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% Universitario Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Universitario Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:3
noMERCY 30%Universitario Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by noMERCY in 31:23.
Game 2prediction correct23:44
noMERCY 30%Universitario Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Universitario Esports in 49:20.
Game 3prediction correct9:36
noMERCY 30%Universitario Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Universitario Esports in 41:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteUniversitario Esports · 70%
Series resultUniversitario Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3