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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPangolierloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Empirewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPangolier

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pikachu · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ghostik · 1 game
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
100%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
100%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Ghostik · 1 game
100%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 1 game
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Pikachu · 1 game
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 1 game
100%

Team Empire

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Petushara · 1 game
100%
Chen
Chen
EcNart · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
EcNart · 1 game
100%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Smiling Knight · 1 game
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
sayuw · 1 game
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 1 game
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Smiling Knight · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
53 picks · 89 bans
44%
Puck
Puck
42 picks · 102 bans
46%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
39 picks · 30 bans
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
37 picks · 58 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
30 picks · 37 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
28 picks · 60 bans
47%
Undying
Undying
28 picks · 52 bans
47%
Mirana
Mirana
27 picks · 33 bans
42%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% NoPangolier
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% NoPangolier
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:26
NoPangolier 48%Team Empire 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPalantimos
little datalittle data
Wraith KingSmiling Knight
Wraith King
Lycan
LycanPikachu
43% · 3 gameslittle data
ViperPetushara
Viper
Pangolier
PangolierGhostik
little data57% · 3 games
Tusksayuw
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixBignum
little datalittle data
Ancient ApparitionEcNart
Ancient Apparition
Abaddon
AbaddonCeMaTheSlayeR
little data
Game 2prediction missed13:27
NoPangolier 51%Team Empire 49%
The model gave 51% on NoPangolier — the game was taken by Team Empire in 42:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordPalantimos
57% · 3 gameslittle data
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey KingPikachu
43% · 3 gameslittle data
TimbersawPetushara
Timbersaw
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCeMaTheSlayeR
50% · 4 games50% · 10 games
PhoenixEcNart
Phoenix
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGhostik
little datalittle data
Clockwerksayuw
Clockwerk
Lion
LionBignum
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPangolier · 50%
Series resultTeam Empire 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2