The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNwin 1:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Estar Backsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoPing VPN
No games played over 6 months.
Estar Backs
Grimstrokesignature
Michael · 9 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Yor · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 7 games
Dragon Knightsignature
DarkMago · 6 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
Mnz · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 6 games
Rubicksignature
Michael · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
481 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 749 bans
Centaur Warrunner
429 picks · 638 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 411 bans
Batrider
403 picks · 759 bans
Rubick
383 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
355 picks · 1041 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 742 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 65%
Hero pool strength55% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
NoPing VPN 37%Estar Backs 63%
The model gave 63% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by NoPing VPN.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 63%
Series resultNoPing VPN 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1