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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 29 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 21 game
81%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lelis · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 16 games
56%

Aurora Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 2 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 2 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 1 game
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lorenof · 1 game
100%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 1 game
100%
Warlock
Warlock
Oli · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 626 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
324 picks · 363 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 351 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
315 picks · 428 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
309 picks · 407 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
307 picks · 514 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
299 picks · 113 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
299 picks · 167 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:10
nouns 53%Aurora Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 40:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuma
42% · 142 games57% · 172 games
TimbersawJabz
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierCopy
50% · 279 games52% · 184 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernGunnar
45% · 49 games57% · 72 games
Troll Warlord23savage
Troll Warlord
Enigma
EnigmaFly
54% · 97 games51% · 139 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskLelis
38% · 85 games55% · 85 games
Elder TitanOli
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed4:22
nouns 55%Aurora Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on nouns — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 29:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCopy
55% · 122 games44% · 257 games
Morphling23savage
Morphling
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuma
53% · 112 games46% · 27 games
Shadow FiendLorenof
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierGunnar
52% · 228 games48% · 171 game
BeastmasterJabz
Beastmaster
Tusk
TuskLelis
47% · 95 games49% · 104 games
Spirit BreakerQ
Spirit Breaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFly
53% · 202 games52% · 200 games
SvenOli
Sven
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2