?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bammysoyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 14 games
64%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Fly · 13 games
69%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YamSun · 12 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
82%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 10 games
80%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Gunnar · 10 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
YamSun · 9 games
78%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
44%

Bammysoy

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
BliNcc · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Husky · 8 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Moo · 7 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Moo · 6 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mo13ei · 6 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
ZfreeK · 6 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
BliNcc · 6 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Husky · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 479 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
281 picks · 425 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
264 picks · 233 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 447 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
258 picks · 164 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
245 picks · 341 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 708 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
240 picks · 384 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% nouns
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total78% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:9
nouns 65%Bammysoy 35%
The model gave 65% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 36:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuma
49% · 214 games50% · 213 games
TerrorbladeSammyboy
Terrorblade
Tidehunter
TidehunterGunnar
55% · 136 games49% · 374 games
Ember SpiritMo13ei
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierStormstormer
52% · 341 game53% · 285 games
Nature's ProphetZfreeK
Nature's Prophet
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
47% · 116 games42% · 19 games
SlardarMoo
Slardar
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFly
51% · 141 game45% · 57 games
Winter WyvernBliNcc
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct24:15
nouns 66%Bammysoy 34%
The model gave 66% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuma
45% · 131 game56% · 161 game
AlchemistMo13ei
Alchemist
Mars
MarsGunnar
42% · 53 games69% · 40 games
Lone DruidSammyboy
Lone Druid
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStormstormer
41% · 181 game51% · 30 games
SlardarMoo
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
52% · 75 games59% · 306 games
Nature's ProphetZfreeK
Nature's Prophet
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
42% · 137 games43% · 40 games
Winter WyvernBliNcc
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 78%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2