ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KBU.USloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 11 games
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
Marcioften banned
Husky · 8 games
Winter Wyvern
Husky · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Moo · 6 games
Tinysignature
Gunnar · 6 games
Zeus
ZfreeK · 6 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
626 picks · 469 bans
Puck
440 picks · 947 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 189 bans
Dawnbreaker
360 picks · 420 bans
Mars
350 picks · 585 bans
Dragon Knight
333 picks · 453 bans
Bane
310 picks · 194 bans
Marci
309 picks · 620 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 49%
Hero pool strength56% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:12
nouns 81%KBU.US 19%
The model gave 81% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 43:15.
Game 2prediction correct68:41
nouns 81%KBU.US 19%
The model gave 81% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 1:10:31.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 81%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2