?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 26 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fly · 25 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 25 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Lelis · 25 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Copy · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Copy · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Lelis · 23 games
43%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Lelis · 22 games
68%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 24 games
79%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OmaR · 18 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 17 games
59%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
85%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Fbz · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
GH · 12 games
33%
Luna
Lunasignature
Miracle- · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
376 picks · 500 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
372 picks · 345 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 464 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 599 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
300 picks · 356 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
274 picks · 141 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
252 picks · 407 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
251 picks · 254 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:31
nouns 48%Nigma Galaxy 52%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuma
53% · 322 games50% · 191 game
Shadow FiendMiracle-
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGunnar
45% · 197 games57% · 196 games
KunkkaSumaiL
Kunkka
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainCopy
40% · 89 games50% · 411 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
49% · 264 games52% · 141 game
MuertaOmaR
Muerta
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFly
53% · 338 games49% · 271 game
Dark WillowGH
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct39:30
nouns 50%Nigma Galaxy 50%
The model gave 50% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 54:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuma
49% · 258 games54% · 94 games
Shadow FiendMiracle-
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGunnar
49% · 181 game47% · 136 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCopy
50% · 55 games49% · 292 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Lion
LionLelis
50% · 199 games51% · 82 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiFly
41% · 22 games56% · 111 games
MagnusOmaR
Magnus
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 54%
Accuracy by game2 of 2