DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YamSun · 10 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
YamSun · 9 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
Lelis · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Lelis · 8 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
YamSun · 8 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Lelis · 7 games
No Bounty Hunter
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Puckoften banned
high_shaggy · 1 game
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
255 picks · 428 bans
Phoenix
249 picks · 381 bans
Centaur Warrunner
247 picks · 348 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 202 bans
Muerta
206 picks · 283 bans
Nature's Prophet
203 picks · 515 bans
Dark Willow
198 picks · 98 bans
Pugna
182 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:16
nouns 80%No Bounty Hunter 20%
The model gave 80% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 25:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYuma
Ember Spirithigh_shaggy
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
SlardarkAAN
PangolierStormstormer
TechiesLelis
EnchantressFly
Game 2prediction correct63:16
nouns 80%No Bounty Hunter 20%
The model gave 80% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 30:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerYuma
LunakAAN
PangolierStormstormer
Storm Spirithigh_shaggy
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
HoodwinkLelis
UndyingFly
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 94%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2