BTS Pro Series Season 11. Америка · BO5
result vs prediction
nounswin 3:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team DogChamploss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moo · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Husky · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Gunnar · 3 games
Witch Doctor
Husky · 3 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Costabile · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
ZfreeK · 2 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Gunnar · 2 games
Team DogChamp
Banesignature
Bloody Nine · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 13 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 12 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 10 games
Hoodwink
yarintheslayer · 8 games
Tinyoften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
468 picks · 656 bans
Tiny
456 picks · 493 bans
Bane
449 picks · 272 bans
Sand King
426 picks · 575 bans
Dragon Knight
371 picks · 434 bans
Storm Spirit
370 picks · 622 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 550 bans
Death Prophet
342 picks · 812 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 42%
Hero pool strength61% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:20
nouns 62%Team DogChamp 38%
The model gave 62% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 42:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetMoo
Troll WarlordStoneBank
BloodseekerCostabile
TimbersawSpeeed
Storm SpiritGunnar
Void SpiritRyoya
WindrangerZfreeK
Pugnayarintheslayer
EnchantressHusky
Crystal MaidenBloody Nine
Game 2prediction correct37:4
nouns 60%Team DogChamp 40%
The model gave 60% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 29:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerCostabile
MedusaStoneBank
VisageMoo
MarsSpeeed
Earth SpiritGunnar
Dragon KnightRyoya
Chaos KnightZfreeK
Winter Wyvernyarintheslayer
OmniknightHusky
BaneBloody Nine
Game 3prediction missed25:22
nouns 63%Team DogChamp 37%
The model gave 63% on nouns — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 33:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreCostabile
MedusaStoneBank
Night StalkerMoo
PuckRyoya
Storm SpiritGunnar
TinySpeeed
EnigmaZfreeK
Pugnayarintheslayer
EnchantressHusky
BaneBloody Nine
Game 4prediction correct56:34
nouns 60%Team DogChamp 40%
The model gave 60% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 1:10:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorCostabile
AlchemistStoneBank
Dragon KnightMoo
UnderlordSpeeed
TuskGunnar
Winter Wyvernyarintheslayer
PhoenixZfreeK
TinyRyoya
Chaos KnightHusky
Crystal MaidenBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 69%
Series resultnouns 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4