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Thunderpick Bitcoin Series · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team DogChamploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 11 games
82%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Husky · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Gunnar · 8 games
63%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Husky · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Moo · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Husky · 6 games
67%

Team DogChamp

Bane
Bane
Bloody Nine · 18 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 13 games
46%
Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 13 games
23%
Tiny
Tiny
StoneBank · 10 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
lukiluki · 7 games
29%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
yarintheslayer · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
700 picks · 511 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
504 picks · 985 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
419 picks · 531 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
390 picks · 711 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
379 picks · 194 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
332 picks · 330 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
301 picks · 320 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
291 picks · 601 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 61%
Hero pool strength59% nouns
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total77% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
nouns 77%Team DogChamp 23%
The model gave 77% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns.
Game 2prediction missed
nouns 77%Team DogChamp 23%
The model gave 77% on nouns — the game was taken by Team DogChamp.
Game 3prediction correct
nouns 77%Team DogChamp 23%
The model gave 77% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 77%
Series resultnouns 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3