?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 25 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 25 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Lelis · 24 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fly · 23 games
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Lelis · 23 games
43%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Lelis · 22 games
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Copy · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Copy · 22 games
68%

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 22 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 21 game
76%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 20 games
70%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 20 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 484 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
357 picks · 330 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 459 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
306 picks · 593 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
288 picks · 344 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
284 picks · 153 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
256 picks · 427 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
246 picks · 236 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:12
nouns 37%Team Liquid 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorYuma
40% · 138 games53% · 158 games
GyrocoptermiCKe
Gyrocopter
Broodmother
BroodmotherGunnar
50% · 58 games52% · 85 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
58% · 156 games47% · 60 games
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Chen
ChenFly
54% · 85 games49% · 166 games
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
Clockwerk
Muerta
MuertaLelis
51% · 124 games46% · 92 games
PugnaBoxi
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct17:37
nouns 35%Team Liquid 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuma
47% · 269 games53% · 282 games
GyrocoptermiCKe
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGunnar
50% · 148 games46% · 115 games
Earth SpiritNisha
Earth Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCopy
55% · 209 games45% · 272 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireLelis
47% · 163 games56% · 319 games
Shadow DemonBoxi
Shadow Demon
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFly
53% · 219 games39% · 20 games
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 76%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2