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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 11 games
82%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Husky · 8 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Husky · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Moo · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Husky · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Gunnar · 6 games
67%

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
The Warden · 20 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 16 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 14 games
36%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 13 games
31%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
38%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 12 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
The Warden · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
627 picks · 475 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
444 picks · 949 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
366 picks · 189 bans
51%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
362 picks · 425 bans
46%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 586 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
333 picks · 453 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
311 picks · 194 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
311 picks · 624 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% nouns
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total70% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:19
nouns 70%Wildcard Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 39:02.
Game 2prediction missed35:47
nouns 70%Wildcard Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on nouns — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 48:05.
Game 3prediction missed41:38
nouns 70%Wildcard Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on nouns — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 49:14.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 70%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3