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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
NPC's IRLloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NPC's IRL

Axe
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 2 games
0%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Focus · 2 games
0%
Silencer
Silencer
SsaSpartan · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Focus · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SsaSpartan · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ThuG · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ThuG · 1 game
0%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 21 game
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 14 games
57%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
36%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
50%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 12 games
25%
Axe
Axeoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
582 picks · 926 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
544 picks · 419 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
493 picks · 661 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 636 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
425 picks · 928 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 642 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 525 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
370 picks · 229 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
NPC's IRL 15%Team Lynx 85%
The model gave 85% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Game 2prediction correct
NPC's IRL 15%Team Lynx 85%
The model gave 85% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 85%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2