Star Series #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
NS Clubloss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Stariy_Bog Clubwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NS Club
No games played over 6 months.
Stariy_Bog Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
594 picks · 363 bans
Phoenix
487 picks · 579 bans
Rubick
481 picks · 259 bans
Tiny
451 picks · 384 bans
Pangolier
400 picks · 548 bans
Puck
337 picks · 907 bans
Beastmaster
332 picks · 837 bans
Tusk
322 picks · 276 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% NS Club
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Stariy_Bog Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:59
NS Club 49%Stariy_Bog Club 51%
The model gave 51% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by Stariy_Bog Club in 44:44.
Game 2prediction missed
NS Club 49%Stariy_Bog Club 51%
The model gave 51% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by NS Club.
Game 3prediction correct
NS Club 49%Stariy_Bog Club 51%
The model gave 51% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by Stariy_Bog Club.
Model check result
Model favoriteStariy_Bog Club · 51%
Series resultStariy_Bog Club 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3