Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionNnuoyanloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Holy Grailwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nuoyan
Crystal Maiden
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 1 game
Holy Grail
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
774 picks · 505 bans
Tiny
549 picks · 390 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
415 picks · 648 bans
Snapfire
399 picks · 284 bans
Death Prophet
385 picks · 708 bans
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 786 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% nuoyan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% nuoyan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:32
nuoyan 53%Holy Grail 47%
The model gave 53% on nuoyan — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 55:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Crystal Maiden谢乐zzz张泽中
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
51% · 33 games
Death ProphetTzy
56% · 14 games
Nyx Assassinomoxiloyi
Game 2prediction missed16:21
nuoyan 52%Holy Grail 48%
The model gave 52% on nuoyan — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 39:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven谢乐zzz张泽中
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
little data
UnderlordTzy
50% · 14 games
Miranaomoxiloyi
Model check result
Model favoritenuoyan · 53%
Series resultHoly Grail 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2