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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Odiumwin 2:0
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Odium

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
lupsione · 4 games
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
lupsione · 3 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Actor · 2 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lil · 2 games
50%
Pudge
Pudge
selfhate · 2 games
0%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Rain · 2 games
50%
Sven
Svenoften banned
selfhate · 2 games
0%

Wildcard Gaming

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 26 games
54%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 24 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 21 game
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 21 game
43%
Tiny
Tiny
YamSun · 21 game
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 20 games
55%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
585 picks · 591 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
384 picks · 377 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
376 picks · 421 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
365 picks · 213 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
339 picks · 706 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
326 picks · 832 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
316 picks · 635 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed52:45
Odium 31%Wildcard Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Odium in 1:12:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerRain
54% · 32 games47% · 127 games
Queen of PainRCY
Queen of Pain
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightselfhate
34% · 13 games54% · 230 games
GyrocopterYamSun
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterActor
51% · 227 games53% · 51 game
BrewmasterFayde
Brewmaster
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorLil
50% · 4 games42% · 25 games
ZeusSpeeed
Zeus
Tusk
Tusklupsione
43% · 221 game62% · 64 games
BaneBignum
Bane
Game 2prediction missed44:22
Odium 32%Wildcard Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Odium in 40:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetselfhate
54% · 239 games48% · 283 games
TerrorbladeYamSun
Terrorblade
Primal Beast
Primal BeastRain
51% · 153 games56% · 220 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Axe
AxeActor
47% · 87 games43% · 124 games
MarsFayde
Mars
Tiny
Tinylupsione
53% · 407 games53% · 136 games
Ancient ApparitionSpeeed
Ancient Apparition
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorLil
37% · 14 games46% · 137 games
MarciBignum
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 82%
Series resultOdium 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2