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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OG LATAMwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HunterZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG LATAM

Tusk
Tusk
Elmisho · 12 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoOz · 9 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 8 games
38%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
K1 · 8 games
38%
Underlord
Underlord
ILICH- · 8 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 8 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
57%

HunterZ

Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
100%
Slardar
Slardar
Vitaly · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mjz · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mjz · 3 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Prada · 3 games
67%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
100%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Prada · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
335 picks · 314 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 814 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
285 picks · 142 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
281 picks · 314 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 761 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
271 picks · 248 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
270 picks · 173 bans
50%
Marci
Marci
262 picks · 804 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% HunterZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% OG LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:57
OG LATAM 57%HunterZ 43%
The model gave 57% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by HunterZ in 51:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCostabile
51% · 100 games51% · 176 games
EarthshakerVitaly
Earthshaker
Monkey King
Monkey KingAlone
56% · 157 games48% · 181 game
MarciLumière
Marci
Windranger
WindrangerFCR
40% · 48 games45% · 174 games
HoodwinkMjz
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressPanda
53% · 137 games52% · 130 games
Ogre MagiPrada
Ogre Magi
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGenek
53% · 219 games
Game 2prediction correct29:23
OG LATAM 58%HunterZ 42%
The model gave 58% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by OG LATAM in 44:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackCostabile
46% · 227 games52% · 223 games
Primal BeastVitaly
Primal Beast
Sand King
Sand KingAlone
46% · 105 games52% · 221 game
AbaddonLumière
Abaddon
Timbersaw
TimbersawFCR
54% · 86 games54% · 117 games
BanePrada
Bane
Batrider
BatriderGenek
51% · 233 games45% · 212 games
HoodwinkMjz
Hoodwink
Warlock
WarlockPanda
50% · 122 games
Game 3prediction correct35:17
OG LATAM 60%HunterZ 40%
The model gave 60% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by OG LATAM in 51:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCostabile
58% · 29 games57% · 3 games
Chaos KnightLumière
Chaos Knight
Sand King
Sand KingAlone
50% · 91 game53% · 64 games
Void SpiritVitaly
Void Spirit
Dazzle
DazzleFCR
46% · 42 games44% · 139 games
HoodwinkMjz
Hoodwink
Magnus
MagnusGenek
55% · 125 games47% · 220 games
BatriderPrada
Batrider
Enchantress
EnchantressPanda
53% · 139 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOG LATAM · 65%
Series resultOG LATAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3