?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OG LATAMloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HunterZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG LATAM

Tusk
Tusksignature
Elmisho · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Genek · 10 games
80%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoOz · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Genek · 8 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 8 games
38%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
K1 · 8 games
38%
Underlord
Underlord
ILICH- · 8 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 8 games
50%

HunterZ

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mjz · 10 games
40%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Vitaly · 8 games
88%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mjz · 7 games
43%
Slardar
Slardar
Vitaly · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 4 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Prada · 4 games
75%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
100%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
449 picks · 423 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
440 picks · 225 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
351 picks · 937 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 371 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
298 picks · 148 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
293 picks · 224 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
283 picks · 660 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
281 picks · 855 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% HunterZ
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total62% OG LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:48
OG LATAM 57%HunterZ 43%
The model gave 57% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by HunterZ in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperPiPi
51% · 39 games52% · 87 games
KunkkaLumière
Kunkka
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCostabile
45% · 101 game54% · 126 games
EarthshakerVitaly
Earthshaker
Enigma
EnigmaFCR
48% · 99 games52% · 9 games
TechiesMjz
Techies
Marci
MarciGenek
44% · 100 games49% · 201 game
BatriderPrada
Batrider
Bane
BanePanda
54% · 84 games
Game 2prediction missed13:43
OG LATAM 56%HunterZ 44%
The model gave 56% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by HunterZ in 24:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenCostabile
49% · 97 games37% · 162 games
MarciLumière
Marci
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPiPi
51% · 168 games55% · 134 games
LycanVitaly
Lycan
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFCR
49% · 72 games53% · 137 games
SnapfireMjz
Snapfire
Silencer
SilencerPanda
59% · 101 game53% · 241 game
PhoenixPrada
Phoenix
Batrider
BatriderGenek
44% · 236 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOG LATAM · 62%
Series resultHunterZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2