PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OG LATAMwin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PAPerros angryyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG LATAM
Tusk
Elmisho · 12 games
Batridersignature
Genek · 9 games
Shadow Shaman
MoOz · 9 games
Ringmaster
MoOz · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
K1 · 8 games
Underlord
ILICH- · 8 games
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 8 games
Warlocksignature
MoOz · 8 games
Perros angryy
Undyingoften banned
FeelinG · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
424 picks · 394 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 203 bans
Puck
344 picks · 892 bans
Pugna
318 picks · 361 bans
Warlock
284 picks · 138 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 228 bans
Batrider
276 picks · 670 bans
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 831 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% OG LATAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% OG LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:9
OG LATAM 73%Perros angryy 27%
The model gave 73% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by OG LATAM in 26:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetCostabile
DisruptorFeelinG
PuckPiPi
DazzleFCR
TuskGenek
BanePanda
Game 2prediction correct40:21
OG LATAM 74%Perros angryy 26%
The model gave 74% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by OG LATAM in 41:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzCostabile
EnchantressFeelinG
PuckPiPi
MagnusFCR
BatriderGenek
PugnaPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteOG LATAM · 88%
Series resultOG LATAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2