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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 17 games
41%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
27%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 12 games
33%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 11 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 11 games
45%

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 21 game
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SSS · 17 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
47%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Munkushi~ · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
489 picks · 571 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
488 picks · 445 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
452 picks · 232 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
356 picks · 715 bans
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
320 picks · 732 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
317 picks · 499 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 264 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
298 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total68% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:43
OG 37%1w Team 63%
The model gave 63% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 55:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
54% · 274 games47% · 273 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawMikSa`
50% · 165 games51% · 162 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Pangolier
PangolierStormstormer
46% · 357 games58% · 13 games
AxeSSS
Axe
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDaze
45% · 196 games46% · 356 games
Batriderswedenstrong
Batrider
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKidaro
64% · 100 games46% · 288 games
Enchantresskasane
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct15:41
OG 36%1w Team 64%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 43:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordShad
45% · 145 games57% · 301 game
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStormstormer
51% · 313 games48% · 328 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMikSa`
45% · 420 games54% · 216 games
Dark SeerSSS
Dark Seer
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetDaze
51% · 156 games47% · 219 games
Enchantresskasane
Enchantress
Lich
LichKidaro
55% · 115 games47% · 85 games
Chaos Knightswedenstrong
Chaos Knight
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 68%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2