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RES Regional Champions: Belgrade · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Allianceloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 25 games
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Ari · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 19 games
68%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Timado · 15 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 15 games
67%

Alliance

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 22 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 20 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
dEsire · 20 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Palantimos · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
345 picks · 301 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 463 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
332 picks · 450 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
322 picks · 210 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 571 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
279 picks · 457 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
264 picks · 368 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
260 picks · 325 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:30
OG 72%Alliance 28%
The model gave 72% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 41:59.
Game 2prediction correct33:7
OG 72%Alliance 28%
The model gave 72% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 24:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 72%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2