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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 18 games
44%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 16 games
63%
Bane
Bane
Misha · 14 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
bzm · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Taiga · 11 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 10 games
80%

BOOM Esports

Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 19 games
84%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 16 games
81%
Bane
Banesignature
Skem · 15 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Skem · 15 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 15 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 15 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
87%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
466 picks · 637 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
454 picks · 284 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 492 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
401 picks · 532 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
358 picks · 797 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 552 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 558 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 511 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength59% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:30
OG 46%BOOM Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by OG in 52:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYuragi
60% · 102 games48% · 151 game
Monkey KingJaCkky
Monkey King
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
52% · 200 games45% · 135 games
Void SpiritYopaj
Void Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
55% · 352 games42% · 322 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Pugna
PugnaTaiga
50% · 97 games52% · 78 games
PhoenixTims
Phoenix
Windranger
WindrangerCeb
54% · 118 games44% · 183 games
SnapfireSkem
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed35:20
OG 42%BOOM Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by OG in 41:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuragi
52% · 136 games55% · 156 games
Storm SpiritYopaj
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
49% · 170 games44% · 46 games
Chaos KnightJaCkky
Chaos Knight
Puck
Puckbzm
45% · 253 games44% · 298 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Windranger
WindrangerCeb
47% · 68 games59% · 81 game
Keeper of the LightSkem
Keeper of the Light
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTaiga
53% · 61 game53% · 107 games
RubickTims
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 64%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2