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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 24 games
67%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 23 games
70%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 16 games
69%
Viper
Vipersignature
ATF · 16 games
69%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 15 games
40%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 14 games
71%

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 29 games
66%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 20 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Tims · 16 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Yopaj · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 13 games
69%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Skem · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
496 picks · 384 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
423 picks · 644 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
293 picks · 461 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
283 picks · 690 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 395 bans
47%
Undying
Undying
252 picks · 447 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
252 picks · 334 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
248 picks · 820 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 51%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:23
OG 56%BOOM Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 49:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
52% · 195 games52% · 65 games
Phantom LancerJaCkky
Phantom Lancer
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
49% · 214 games51% · 38 games
Primal BeastYopaj
Primal Beast
Razor
RazorATF
53% · 223 games51% · 270 games
Death ProphetFbz
Death Prophet
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTaiga
51% · 169 games48% · 135 games
TuskTims
Tusk
Oracle
OracleMisha
46% · 28 games45% · 321 game
SnapfireSkem
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct27:35
OG 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 56:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenYuragi
60% · 52 games51% · 113 games
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Terrorblade
Invoker
Invokerbzm
47% · 154 games43% · 43 games
LeshracYopaj
Leshrac
Slardar
SlardarATF
62% · 42 games49% · 138 games
PangolierFbz
Pangolier
Jakiro
JakiroMisha
45% · 95 games45% · 160 games
SnapfireTims
Snapfire
Marci
MarciTaiga
50% · 207 games53% · 96 games
UndyingSkem
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 58%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2