ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fnaticloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Marsoften banned
ATF · 18 games
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 16 games
Bane
Misha · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
bzm · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 11 games
Snapfire
Taiga · 11 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
468 picks · 628 bans
Tiny
451 picks · 497 bans
Bane
444 picks · 278 bans
Sand King
405 picks · 532 bans
Death Prophet
361 picks · 799 bans
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 552 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 557 bans
Pangolier
334 picks · 514 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:16
OG 51%Fnatic 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 44:58.
Game 2prediction missed12:27
OG 51%Fnatic 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Fnatic in 36:21.
Game 3prediction correct26:40
OG 51%Fnatic 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 1:04:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3