Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Goonsquadloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Marsoften banned
ATF · 15 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 15 games
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 13 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 13 games
Puckoften banned
bzm · 12 games
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 12 games
Bane
Misha · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yuragi · 11 games
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 442 bans
Mars
460 picks · 683 bans
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 538 bans
Bane
410 picks · 288 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 594 bans
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 567 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 625 bans
Chaos Knight
334 picks · 651 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:30
OG 57%Goonsquad 43%
The model gave 57% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 41:03.
Game 2prediction correct43:12
OG 57%Goonsquad 43%
The model gave 57% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 34:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 57%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2