CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
Tiny
Stormstormer · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 15 games
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 13 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 12 games
Tuskoften banned
Daze · 12 games
HULIGANI
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
Earthshakersignature
Corrupted · 13 games
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
Puckoften banned
erase · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
488 picks · 510 bans
Dark Willow
385 picks · 218 bans
Tusk
353 picks · 393 bans
Puck
331 picks · 860 bans
Batrider
322 picks · 920 bans
Pangolier
309 picks · 466 bans
Tiny
303 picks · 275 bans
Nature's Prophet
299 picks · 597 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:28
OG 43%HULIGANI 57%
The model gave 57% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by OG in 50:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenShad
Doomv1olent-
PuckStojkov
MarsBb3px
TimbersawMikSa`
Monkey Kingerase
SilencerLelis
Warlockaik
TinyDaze
Lionslimeyao
Game 2prediction missed31:13
OG 48%HULIGANI 52%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by OG in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterMikSa`
Terrorbladev1olent-
Shadow FiendShad
EarthshakerBb3px
Void SpiritStojkov
Queen of Painerase
Naga SirenLelis
Shadow Demonslimeyao
PugnaDaze
Tuskaik
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 56%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2