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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Luna Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 32 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 17 games
59%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 17 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bzm · 15 games
53%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 14 games
57%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 13 games
62%

Luna Galaxy

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
82%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Thiolicor · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Thiolicor · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Davai · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
712 picks · 606 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 507 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
485 picks · 1198 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
483 picks · 914 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
431 picks · 1086 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
415 picks · 872 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
406 picks · 218 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
400 picks · 577 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Luna Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:14
OG 65%Luna Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
51% · 80 games60% · 68 games
Naga SirenShad
Naga Siren
Medusa
MedusaYuragi
54% · 81 game41% · 95 games
Void SpiritAdzantick
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderDM
51% · 157 games50% · 36 games
Anti-MageDavai
Anti-Mage
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterChuvash
52% · 57 games46% · 71 game
Spirit BreakerThiolicor
Spirit Breaker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTaiga
48% · 38 games48% · 143 games
MiranaXakoda
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct39:17
OG 65%Luna Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYuragi
49% · 81 game50% · 131 game
BatriderDavai
Batrider
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiDM
44% · 32 games60% · 72 games
Faceless VoidShad
Faceless Void
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
43% · 192 games49% · 191 game
PangolierAdzantick
Pangolier
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageTaiga
43% · 140 games64% · 6 games
LionThiolicor
Lion
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonChuvash
50% · 78 games58% · 123 games
TechiesXakoda
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 80%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2