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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 25 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 21 game
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
40%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
44%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Daze · 17 games
59%

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 34 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 24 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
38%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
508 picks · 264 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
477 picks · 480 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
361 picks · 984 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
326 picks · 373 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
300 picks · 145 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
299 picks · 493 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
299 picks · 509 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
291 picks · 613 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total80% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:44
OG 32%Nigma Galaxy 68%
The model gave 68% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordShad
46% · 60 games57% · 3 games
Lone DruidGhost
Lone Druid
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendStojkov
47% · 186 games55% · 104 games
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Bristleback
BristlebackMikSa`
57% · 190 games52% · 216 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
46% · 243 games46% · 230 games
SnapfireOmaR
Snapfire
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinDaze
51% · 48 games49% · 174 games
DisruptorTobi
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct13:43
OG 35%Nigma Galaxy 65%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordShad
42% · 68 games60% · 258 games
Nature's ProphetGhost
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikSa`
51% · 256 games49% · 164 games
InvokerSumaiL
Invoker
Sniper
SniperStojkov
49% · 68 games56% · 116 games
SlardarNo!ob
Slardar
Silencer
SilencerLelis
43% · 125 games56% · 137 games
Naga SirenTobi
Naga Siren
Tiny
TinyDaze
45% · 306 games48% · 148 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 80%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2