The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quincy Crewloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Hoodwink
Topson · 14 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 10 games
Elder Titan
n0tail · 10 games
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
Topson · 9 games
Dark Willowsignature
Saksa · 8 games
Lionsignature
Saksa · 7 games
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
304 picks · 180 bans
Mars
291 picks · 407 bans
Lina
277 picks · 569 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 368 bans
Shadow Demon
249 picks · 254 bans
Tidehunter
245 picks · 413 bans
Hoodwink
243 picks · 89 bans
Void Spirit
228 picks · 257 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:30
OG 46%Quincy Crew 54%
The model gave 54% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by OG in 40:20.
Game 2prediction missed39:33
OG 46%Quincy Crew 54%
The model gave 54% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by OG in 38:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 54%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2