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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 15 games
47%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 15 games
87%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 14 games
64%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 14 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 13 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 13 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
82%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bzm · 10 games
70%

Team Liquid

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 13 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 13 games
46%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 10 games
90%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 10 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
583 picks · 457 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
420 picks · 645 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
403 picks · 859 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
391 picks · 516 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
373 picks · 251 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
337 picks · 166 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 618 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
314 picks · 537 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% OG
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total53% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:26
OG 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuragi
58% · 60 games44% · 5 games
Lone DruidMATUMBAMAN
Lone Druid
Puck
Puckbzm
57% · 166 games51% · 171 game
Razorzai
Razor
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
55% · 77 games47% · 31 game
PudgemiCKe
Pudge
Zeus
ZeusTaiga
56% · 54 games39% · 163 games
DawnbreakerBoxi
Dawnbreaker
Marci
MarciMisha
48% · 84 games45% · 71 game
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed19:34
OG 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerYuragi
54% · 121 game54% · 42 games
BristlebackMATUMBAMAN
Bristleback
Mars
MarsATF
51% · 509 games49% · 304 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
41% · 246 games52% · 287 games
Snapfirezai
Snapfire
Zeus
ZeusTaiga
48% · 88 games55% · 167 games
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
Keeper of the Light
Jakiro
JakiroMisha
40% · 104 games56% · 268 games
Monkey KingBoxi
Monkey King
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 53%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2