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BLAST Slam V · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Yandexwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 32 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 28 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 24 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 23 games
48%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 21 game
48%

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 19 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 19 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 17 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 17 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 16 games
81%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
TA2000 · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
776 picks · 363 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
581 picks · 300 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
568 picks · 574 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
509 picks · 356 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
498 picks · 600 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
482 picks · 273 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
475 picks · 750 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 496 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:16
OG 47%Team Yandex 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by OG in 40:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
50% · 406 games49% · 242 games
Templar AssassinWatson
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYopaj
50% · 445 games45% · 316 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Axe
AxeForce
46% · 192 games50% · 173 games
SlardarChira JUNIOR
Slardar
Venomancer
VenomancerSkem
57% · 56 games52% · 358 games
BatriderSaksa
Batrider
Snapfire
SnapfireTims
55% · 380 games48% · 390 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct10:26
OG 47%Team Yandex 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
50% · 199 games57% · 45 games
LinaWatson
Lina
Sand King
Sand KingYopaj
46% · 135 games54% · 215 games
BristlebackNoticed
Bristleback
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
52% · 159 games49% · 135 games
Shadow FiendChira JUNIOR
Shadow Fiend
Snapfire
SnapfireSkem
46% · 192 games55% · 144 games
Naga SirenMalady
Naga Siren
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerTims
43% · 34 games47% · 180 games
WindrangerSaksa
Windranger
Game 3prediction correct10:34
OG 45%Team Yandex 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 46:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNatsumi
51% · 341 game53% · 274 games
UrsaWatson
Ursa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterYopaj
49% · 323 games60% · 217 games
Sand KingChira JUNIOR
Sand King
Axe
AxeForce
44% · 133 games53% · 227 games
SlardarNoticed
Slardar
Snapfire
SnapfireTims
48% · 337 games49% · 431 game
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Enchantress
EnchantressSkem
45% · 154 games47% · 139 games
WindrangerSaksa
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 54%
Series resultTeam Yandex 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3