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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 29 games
62%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 16 games
56%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 16 games
56%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 15 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 15 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 13 games
54%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 27 games
81%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 19 games
74%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 16 games
81%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 16 games
63%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 12 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Pure~ · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Topson · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 722 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 677 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
415 picks · 335 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 355 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 524 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
401 picks · 884 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
379 picks · 172 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 180 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 66%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total56% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:34
OG 47%Tundra Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTimado
43% · 110 games38% · 67 games
Drow RangerPure~
Drow Ranger
Razor
RazorWisper
47% · 74 games56% · 211 games
PugnaTopson
Pugna
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
52% · 301 game51% · 126 games
BrewmasterTobi
Brewmaster
Rubick
RubickAri
47% · 440 games54% · 376 games
Techies9Class
Techies
Io
IoCeb
56% · 66 games52% · 211 games
ClockwerkWhitemon
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct23:29
OG 46%Tundra Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
53% · 167 games43% · 151 game
MorphlingPure~
Morphling
Lycan
LycanWisper
58% · 106 games47% · 104 games
Faceless VoidTopson
Faceless Void
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightbzm
55% · 285 games48% · 77 games
BrewmasterTobi
Brewmaster
Marci
MarciAri
45% · 49 games48% · 210 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Disruptor
DisruptorCeb
52% · 293 games49% · 358 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 56%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2