?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Omega Esportswin 1:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 15 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 13 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Tino- · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
cml · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 8 games
63%

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 8 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 7 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Khezcute · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
Dreamocel · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
401 picks · 1013 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 607 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
375 picks · 193 bans
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
366 picks · 367 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
316 picks · 502 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
310 picks · 681 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
303 picks · 226 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
278 picks · 156 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Omega Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:15
Omega Esports 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 54:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMac
59% · 63 games40% · 11 games
Drow RangerDreamocel
Drow Ranger
Ursa
UrsaTino-
43% · 53 games61% · 42 games
Templar AssassinMikoto
Templar Assassin
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSam_H
54% · 70 games46% · 73 games
TidehunterFbz
Tidehunter
Snapfire
Snapfirecml
44% · 82 games49% · 80 games
TinyHyde
Tiny
48% · 62 games
Ancient ApparitionKhezcute
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 56%
Series resultOmega Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1