Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportswin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cignal Ultraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Omega Esports
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bok · 5 games
Brewmaster
cml · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 4 games
Grimstroke
cml · 4 games
Lion
cml · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
cml · 4 games
Cignal Ultra
Phantom Assassinsignature
Abat · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jamesy · 5 games
Rikioften banned
Abat · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
244 picks · 508 bans
Void Spirit
223 picks · 274 bans
Mars
205 picks · 377 bans
Earth Spirit
193 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
166 picks · 283 bans
Phoenix
161 picks · 187 bans
Nyx Assassin
160 picks · 512 bans
Wraith King
152 picks · 197 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Cignal Ultra
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:28
Omega Esports 62%Cignal Ultra 38%
The model gave 62% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 46:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingTino-
JuggernautAbat
Void SpiritMac
BatriderJamesy
BeastmasterBok
Iocml
Shadow DemonBoomy
Game 2prediction correct36:17
Omega Esports 59%Cignal Ultra 41%
The model gave 59% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 32:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
IoTino-
RikiAbat
DoomMac
PangolierJamesy
LycanBok
GrimstrokeBoomy
Clockwerkcml
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 63%
Series resultOmega Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2