Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Omega Esportswin 1:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Latam Defendersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Omega Esports
Tiny
Boomy · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 2 games
Earthshaker
Boomy · 2 games
Ogre Magi
cml · 2 games
Omniknight
cml · 2 games
Vengeful Spirit
Mac · 2 games
Weaver
Tino- · 2 games
Latam Defenders
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 1 game
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 1 game
Juggernaut
Cucahook · 1 game
Night Stalker
Valquiria · 1 game
Oracle
Aretes · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 1 game
Tusk
Moonlight · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Earth Spirit
11 picks · 7 bans
Mars
10 picks · 22 bans
Puck
10 picks · 22 bans
Void Spirit
10 picks · 14 bans
Crystal Maiden
9 picks · 0 bans
Tiny
8 picks · 5 bans
Brewmaster
7 picks · 2 bans
Ember Spirit
7 picks · 8 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Latam Defenders
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:8
Omega Esports 55%Latam Defenders 45%
The model gave 55% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 24:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 55%
Series resultOmega Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1