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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 24 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 20 games
65%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 20 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 19 games
37%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 15 games
73%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
SSS · 14 games
57%

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 24 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 21 game
48%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
436 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
406 picks · 544 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
364 picks · 461 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
363 picks · 191 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
354 picks · 373 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 586 bans
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
344 picks · 551 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
338 picks · 376 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total72% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:38
One Move 40%1w Team 60%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSSS
46% · 80 games41% · 13 games
Anti-MageMunkushi~
Anti-Mage
Spectre
SpectreWoE
50% · 22 games48% · 172 games
TimbersawCloud
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
53% · 198 games56% · 116 games
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
Monkey King
Chen
ChenJANTER
58% · 105 games47% · 277 games
Batriderswedenstrong
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
45% · 226 games46% · 53 games
DisruptorFishman
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct29:31
One Move 39%1w Team 61%
The model gave 61% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 38:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageWoE
42% · 36 games53% · 184 games
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Gyrocopter
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSSS
43% · 68 games51% · 184 games
Primal BeastCloud
Primal Beast
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
52% · 241 game51% · 112 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Enchantress
EnchantressJANTER
48% · 401 game53% · 232 games
Phoenixswedenstrong
Phoenix
Marci
Marcinot me
48% · 212 games55% · 246 games
ClockwerkFishman
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 72%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2