One Move vs Five Beavers — prediction PWS2ЗК · Dota 2

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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

One Moveloss 0:2

series probability

66%34%

probability at match start · final 0:2

FBFive Beaverswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Gyrocopteroften banned

WoE · 16 games

56%

Pangolieroften banned

SSS · 14 games

36%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Squad1x · 12 games

50%

Jakiro

Rein · 12 games

33%

Marsoften banned

SSS · 12 games

50%

Windrangeroften banned

WoE · 11 games

55%

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

SSS · 10 games

10%

Clockwerksignature

Rein · 10 games

70%

Five Beavers

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

417 picks · 352 bans

52%

Hoodwink

410 picks · 451 bans

53%

Weaver

389 picks · 829 bans

54%

Tiny

379 picks · 872 bans

54%

Phoenix

358 picks · 749 bans

50%

Pangolier

346 picks · 516 bans

47%

Clockwerk

334 picks · 502 bans

57%

Ember Spirit

301 picks · 571 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)46% vs 57%

Hero pool strength53% Five Beavers

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total66% One Move

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed25:28

One Move 58%Five Beavers 42%

The model gave 58% on One Move — the game was taken by Five Beavers in 58:44.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo