European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Hoodwink
queezy · 7 games
Marsoften banned
AfterLife · 6 games
Phoenix
Panto · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
SSS · 5 games
Lion
queezy · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
chempik · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
chempik · 4 games
Level UP
Tinyoften banned
dEsire · 11 games
Luna
Focus · 10 games
Tusksignature
dEsire · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Bor@nija · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Taiga · 6 games
Earthshaker
dEsire · 6 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Focus · 6 games
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
462 picks · 202 bans
Tiny
419 picks · 574 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 746 bans
Centaur Warrunner
389 picks · 553 bans
Rubick
388 picks · 154 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 688 bans
Mars
337 picks · 555 bans
Dragon Knight
325 picks · 1062 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:27
One Move 55%Level UP 45%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 49:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenv1olent-
LinaBor@nija
Pangolierxn丶e
ClinkzCoblackk
AxeSSS
ClockwerkStoic
HoodwinkWein
BaneJeezy
Keeper of the LightRein
Game 2prediction correct24:21
One Move 55%Level UP 45%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 43:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshracxn丶e
SniperCoblackk
Morphlingv1olent-
OmniknightBor@nija
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
RubickJeezy
Keeper of the LightRein
ClockwerkStoic
HoodwinkWein
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 59%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2