RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 12 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
xn丶e · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
SSS · 9 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Lionsignature
Riddys · 40 games
Snapfire
Daze · 28 games
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 24 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 23 games
Batridersignature
Daze · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
379 picks · 632 bans
Gyrocopter
318 picks · 364 bans
Dark Willow
317 picks · 350 bans
Clockwerk
312 picks · 441 bans
Weaver
299 picks · 540 bans
Centaur Warrunner
288 picks · 379 bans
Rubick
287 picks · 173 bans
Hoodwink
283 picks · 177 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:16
One Move 43%Natus Vincere Junior 57%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by One Move in 28:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterWoE
Void SpiritNiku
Keeper of the LightEthereal
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
Night StalkerSSS
Marspma
ClockwerkRein
SnapfireDaze
56% · 93 games
DisruptorRiddys
Game 2prediction correct7:33
One Move 44%Natus Vincere Junior 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 23:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightWoE
Lifestealergotthejuice
HuskarEthereal
Brewmasterpma
PangolierSSS
Monkey KingNiku
HoodwinkRein
GrimstrokeDaze
37% · 23 games
JakiroRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2