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CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 11 games
27%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
30%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
22%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 9 games
11%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 27 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 23 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 23 games
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 21 game
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
jesv · 20 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 16 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 13 games
38%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
399 picks · 627 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
346 picks · 368 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
335 picks · 438 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
334 picks · 128 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 353 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
314 picks · 162 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
312 picks · 418 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
309 picks · 572 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 54%
Hero pool strength59% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total65% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:30
One Move 39%Nemiga Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 46:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
44% · 166 games47% · 202 games
MorphlingLukas
Morphling
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordWoE
50% · 68 games46% · 25 games
VisageMikSa`
Visage
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
58% · 216 games51% · 297 games
Pangoliernicky`cool
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixRein
45% · 194 games59% · 85 games
Marcijesv
Marci
49% · 35 games
Witch Doctoraik
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction missed39:15
One Move 43%Nemiga Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by One Move in 37:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawSSS
53% · 214 games52% · 38 games
Chaos KnightLukas
Chaos Knight
Spectre
SpectreWoE
47% · 31 game43% · 39 games
Void Spiritnicky`cool
Void Spirit
Invoker
Invokerxn丶e
58% · 99 games44% · 30 games
UnderlordMikSa`
Underlord
Jakiro
JakiroRein
38% · 13 games51% · 149 games
Rubickjesv
Rubick
45% · 101 game
Batrideraik
Batrider
Game 3prediction missed25:15
One Move 40%Nemiga Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by One Move in 31:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinxn丶e
50% · 230 games47% · 84 games
WeaverLukas
Weaver
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSSS
51% · 181 game51% · 177 games
Pangoliernicky`cool
Pangolier
Spectre
SpectreWoE
57% · 73 games52% · 108 games
Primal BeastMikSa`
Primal Beast
Warlock
WarlockRein
41% · 59 games50% · 99 games
Batriderjesv
Batrider
48% · 75 games
Tuskaik
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 65%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3