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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 16 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 15 games
27%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 14 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 14 games
36%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SSS · 14 games
64%

Nemiga Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
jesv · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 16 games
31%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shishak · 16 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
aik · 13 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
33%
Slardar
Slardar
nicky`cool · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
480 picks · 658 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 461 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
353 picks · 444 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 521 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
324 picks · 173 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
319 picks · 393 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
319 picks · 648 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
295 picks · 307 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 26%
Hero pool strength55% One Move
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total75% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
One Move 63%Nemiga Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 24:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWoE
41% · 73 games49% · 79 games
Razorряф^^
Razor
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSSS
50% · 50 games53% · 116 games
TimbersawMiyaoo
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand KingDifference
53% · 121 game55% · 64 games
Chenantoha
Chen
Muerta
Muertanot me
42% · 98 games54% · 113 games
Shadow DemonShishak
Shadow Demon
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRein
50% · 30 games
Game 2prediction missed19:31
One Move 65%Nemiga Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on One Move — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWoE
52% · 197 games58% · 284 games
Storm Spiritряф^^
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterSSS
42% · 62 games48% · 82 games
DawnbreakerMiyaoo
Dawnbreaker
Pangolier
PangolierDifference
44% · 285 games48% · 365 games
HoodwinkShishak
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRein
53% · 224 games55% · 191 game
Chenantoha
Chen
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
47% · 154 games
Game 3prediction correct47:17
One Move 63%Nemiga Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 41:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomSSS
49% · 158 games49% · 154 games
Puckряф^^
Puck
Weaver
WeaverWoE
53% · 128 games56% · 142 games
Monkey KingMiyaoo
Monkey King
Invoker
InvokerDifference
52% · 97 games44% · 208 games
Shadow DemonShishak
Shadow Demon
Muerta
Muertanot me
46% · 88 games49% · 42 games
Ogre Magiantoha
Ogre Magi
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRein
53% · 75 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 75%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3