?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nightshadeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 22 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 18 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 17 games
65%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 15 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 15 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 15 games
27%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SSS · 15 games
67%

Nightshade

Snapfire
Snapfire
waveformn · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Kyzko · 4 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ri4man · 3 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
jmn- · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marci
ChodΣX · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
waveformn · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
490 picks · 671 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
422 picks · 472 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 539 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
336 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
328 picks · 419 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
323 picks · 654 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
305 picks · 316 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:9
One Move 66%Nightshade 34%
The model gave 66% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 26:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dazzle
DazzleDifference
56% · 5 games49% · 89 games
Dark SeerChodΣX
Dark Seer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWoE
33% · 53 games
Alchemist
AlchemistSSS
75% · 12 games
Tinker
TinkerRein
71% · 3 games
Marci
Marcinot me
45% · 16 games
Game 2prediction correct25:8
One Move 68%Nightshade 32%
The model gave 68% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 20:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherWoE
27% · 7 games54% · 100 games
SlardarChodΣX
Slardar
Doom
DoomSSS
73% · 29 games
Puck
PuckDifference
26% · 27 games
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRein
44% · 23 games
Muerta
Muertanot me
50% · 14 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 79%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2