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Фиджитал Игры по Dota 2. Сезон 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Thunder Awakenloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
36%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 10 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Gilgir · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 9 games
56%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Gilgir · 9 games
22%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
AfterLife · 9 games
67%

Thunder Awaken

Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ILICH- · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Michael · 11 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 9 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Accel · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Michael · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
644 picks · 690 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
519 picks · 337 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
439 picks · 935 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
432 picks · 924 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
408 picks · 856 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
391 picks · 872 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
383 picks · 390 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
382 picks · 989 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:7
One Move 47%Thunder Awaken 53%
The model gave 53% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by One Move in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMunkushi~
57% · 95 games53% · 188 games
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
Broodmother
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painre1bl
51% · 48 games48% · 165 games
WindrangerILICH-
Windranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAfterLife
48% · 36 games43% · 161 game
PhoenixMjz
Phoenix
Techies
TechiesGilgir
57% · 122 games
Rubick
RubickPanto
46% · 213 games
Game 2prediction correct29:30
One Move 44%Thunder Awaken 56%
The model gave 56% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 45:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMunkushi~
50% · 124 games56% · 190 games
MedusaSmiling Knight
Medusa
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinre1bl
44% · 54 games51% · 165 games
VisageILICH-
Visage
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderAfterLife
53% · 20 games51% · 164 games
LichMjz
Lich
Techies
TechiesGilgir
51% · 141 game
Rubick
RubickPanto
42% · 180 games
Game 3prediction missed38:18
One Move 46%Thunder Awaken 54%
The model gave 54% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by One Move in 55:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMunkushi~
55% · 90 games50% · 101 game
SvenSmiling Knight
Sven
Timbersaw
TimbersawAfterLife
47% · 120 games55% · 147 games
Dark SeerILICH-
Dark Seer
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritre1bl
44% · 183 games53% · 357 games
BatriderMjz
Batrider
Enigma
EnigmaGilgir
48% · 91 game
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
42% · 121 game
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 57%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3