DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
oveAwin 1:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MWMena Warriosloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
oveA
No games played over 6 months.
Mena Warrios
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
524 picks · 316 bans
Dark Willow
439 picks · 212 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 177 bans
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 307 bans
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 504 bans
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 294 bans
Earth Spirit
284 picks · 515 bans
Windranger
277 picks · 137 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% oveA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Mena Warrios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
oveA 38%Mena Warrios 62%
The model gave 62% on Mena Warrios — the game was taken by oveA.
Model check result
Model favoriteMena Warrios · 62%
Series resultoveA 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1